What was the predicted probability of an incident in an O-ring for the temperature of the launch day? In which way was the temperature affecting the probability of O-ring incidents? Is the temperature associated with O-ring incidents? Specifically, we want to address the following questions: The purpose of this case study, inspired by Siddhartha, Fowlkes, and Hoadley ( 1989), is to quantify what was the influence of the temperature on the probability of having at least one incident related with the O-rings. “A careful analysis of the flight history of O-ring performance would have revealed the correlation of O-ring damage in low temperature”. The Rogers Commission therefore concluded: The Rogers Commission noted a major flaw in Figure 5.3a, the one presented by the solid rocket booster engineers at the teleconference: the flights with zero incidents were excluded from the plot by the engineers because it was felt that these flights did not contribute any information about the temperature effect (Figure 5.3b). Panel b contains all flights (with and without incidents). Panel a includes only flights with incidents. “Temperature data not conclusive on predicting primary O-ring blowby.”įigure 5.3: Number of incidents in the O-rings (filed joints) versus temperatures. ![]() 141 Figure 5.3a influenced the data analysis conclusion that sustained the launch decision: In the teleconference it was discussed the effect on the O-rings performance of the low temperature forecasted for the launch, and eventually a launch decision was attained. The night before the launch, there was a three-hour teleconference between rocket engineers at Thiokol, the manufacturer company of the solid rocket boosters, and NASA. The problem with O-rings was something known. This failure produced a breach of burning gas through the solid rocket booster that compromised the whole shuttle structure, resulting in its disintegration due to the extreme aerodynamic forces. The commission determined that the disintegration began with the failure of an O-ring seal in the solid rocket booster due to the unusually cold temperature ( \(-0.6\) Celsius degrees \(30.92\) Fahrenheit degrees) during the launch. The Rogers Commission elaborated a report ( Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident 1986) with all the findings. A.5 A note of caution with inference after model-selectionįigure 5.2: Challenger launch and posterior explosion, as broadcasted live by NBC in. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |